The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes, has served as a stark reminder of one reality: nations remain deeply dependent on fossil fuels.
We are seeing a sharp rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, reaching up to +50%, and a 35% increase for gas, according to regulatory authorities. Despite energy transition policies, the conflict serves as a wake-up call to a transition that remains incomplete.
The rapid rise in energy prices has affected nations. In France, a rise of around 15% in household energy bills is expected from May onwards, according to the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE).
This trend is exacerbated by the rise in crude oil prices. Before the conflict began, a barrel of Brent crude was trading at around $75–80. In the days following the tensions in the Middle East, it exceeded $100. This rise is having a direct impact on prices at the pump, with some fuels exceeding €2 per litre in Europe. Some countries, such as Spain and Italy, have introduced measures such as a reduction in VAT to protect their citizens. According to the Minister of State for Energy, no measures are currently being considered in France, as stated in an interview on 19 March 2026.
Against this backdrop, the risk of stagflation a combination of high inflation and low growth is re-emerging. Some economists are debating the potential impact of this war on national economies.
In response to this situation, the European Commission has called on Member States to adjust their stockpiling policies, notably by reducing gas reserve levels by around 10% in order to ease price pressures. This measure is a short-term solution; it does not resolve the underlying problem, which is the persistent dependence on fossil fuel imports.
The possibility of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz raises fears of an energy crisis on a scale comparable to that of 2022. The conflict in the Middle East is not merely a geopolitical crisis; it serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of the global energy system. By highlighting the persistent dependence on fossil fuels, it underscores the urgency of an energy transition that is not only underway but, above all, accelerated and secured.
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