Explosion of energy consuption is coming soon, south States and Asia first
Global energy consuption will notice a 30% increase in the 20 next years. This big increase in short term will differ from place to place, depending on tha area ‘s demographic and economic caracteristics.
Thus, developped economies will have a moderate increase in their energy needs (for Europe that will be a third of the global average) due to weaker economic growth. Moreover, the economy’s maturity of the developped countries is an important factor. Economies with important tertiary sectors (like in OCDE) need less energy than industrial societies (like emerging countries, particulary with recent delocalisations).
Moreover, major social changes happened in the past in developped countries now take place in emerging countries. For example, west countries are already urbanized or have finished their demographic transition (and thus, they don’t need to build many buildings for the new populations).
Due to the growth (economic, demographic…) of the south countries , 90% of the future additional global energy demand will come from these countries by 2030. Only 2 countries : India and China will represent 40% of this new energy demand. However, India will counsume only 5% of the world ‘s energy , meanwhile China will consume almost 25%.
This increase is especially the result of industry and electricity production’s growth (2/3 of the futur increase). And so, households would consume only 10% of the total energy consumption and their share will decrease a little.
But a citizen of a north country will continue to use 3 times more energy than in the south countries, and 11 times more than a subsaharia african. We can see that big differences will continue to exist.
We can easily see that it will be very difficult to dicrease the energy global consumption to 50% by 2050. Unfortunately, it’s the objective to have a global warming limited to “only” 2 degrees.
That won’t be a problem if the future energy demand comes from clean energies. But in 2030, even we’ll have an efficient energy transition in several states (like in the north of Europe), the biggest part of the energy consumption will come from fossil energy. So unfortunately, temperature will continue to increase, like the sea level…